Unpredictable Round Of 16 Is Anyone’s For The Taking

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – A talented and diverse crop of drivers successfully powered their way into the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, and while there are certainly favorites going into the 10-week gauntlet, nothing is guaranteed – especially with the daunting and unpredictable complexion of the Round of 16.

For the first time in 10 years of the current points format, the postseason will kick off at a superspeedway-style track in Atlanta (Ga.) Motor Speedway, which is still considered an intermediate at 1.54 miles.

Watkins Glen (N.Y.) International – the fastest road course on the circuit – comes next, but the variable of a brand-new tire with supposed immense amounts of fall-off will be thrown into the mix. Finally, there’s a popular short track Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway, which will also utilize easily-grated Goodyears, similar to those seen in the spring race there.

Among the those to qualify for the playoffs are all 11 drivers from powerhouse teams Hendrick Motorsports (Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, William Byron), Joe Gibbs Racing (Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs) and Team Penske (Austin Cindric, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney), along with Brad Keselowski, Chase Briscoe, Daniel Suarez, Harrison Burton and Tyler Reddick.

Through 26 races, Reddick won the regular-season title by one point over Larson, who led the series in wins with four, while drivers such as Bell, Byron and Hamlin also established themselves as threats for the Bill France Cup with three victories each.

But even with their respective dominance and points cushions they’ve built up, it would be ignorant to automatically advance all five into the Round of 12 with the uncertainty of the upcoming three-race set.

“I’ll be honest, the first round is the scariest it’s been in a long time with Atlanta – a superspeedway – starting us off,” Bell said during NASCAR Playoff Media Day earlier in the week. “We all know how that can go. And then we go to Watkins Glen, which should be a normal racetrack, but with the expected tire degradation with the tire change that we’ve had, it could be a Bristol-style race where people are wearing tires out really early and struggling to make laps and having to pit all of the time. So, that could be another wild card race.

“And then Bristol, I think everybody is expecting it to be more of the same as what we had in the spring. So, the first round could be very different than what we’ve seen in the past.”

Bell's three wins, backed by a second-best nine stage wins, were enough to grant him the two-seed, just eight points behind top-seeded Larson and 27 above the cutoff. Despite losing the regular-season title, Larson leads all drivers entering the Round of 16, with a 35-point buffer to lean on going into Atlanta.

“Yeah, I don’t love seeing Atlanta in the playoffs at all,” Larson said. “Even Watkins Glen for that matter, just because … they’re just sketchy places. But if they’re going to be in the playoffs, I would rather them be in the first round than the second or third round. So yeah, I mean I think having the bonus points and playoff points that we’ve earned throughout the regular season is nice. But it still doesn’t guarantee anything.

“You still have to not run into any trouble, especially in back-to-back weeks, and hopefully you can just make it through.”

Having Atlanta in the playoffs – let alone as the opening race – has been a significant source of stress for the championship hopefuls. Over the last 10 years, the only drafting track in the postseason was Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway. Now, drivers will have to survive two wild cards in back-to-back rounds.

Since the 1.54-mile track debuted its speedy reconfiguration back in 2022, Atlanta has produced four different winners in five races, with Byron being the only multi-race winner in that period.

Suarez inchedahead for victory by .003 seconds in the most recent race, which was also the fourth-closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history.

There are a handful of drivers with outstanding pedigrees on drafting tracks that one would think could be at an advantage going into the playoff opener.

Three-time Daytona 500 champion Hamlin, who has five superspeedway wins to his name, comes to mind as someone who appears to be in a great position. However, in 16 Next Gen starts on drafting tracks, Hamlin shockingly only has three top 10s, with a 21.2 average-finishing position.

Those numbers are on-par with his season-best superspeedway outing of 19th in the Great American Race back in February.

Hamlin sits sixth in the standings – just 10 points to the good – as opposed to being seeded fourth, due to an L2-level penalty issued in August for an engine teardown issue, where one of the repercussions was the loss of 10 playoff points. That could come back to be a big factor, according to Hamlin.

“I feel as though having this extra superspeedway in there in Atlanta, it just might put you in a hole that you cannot overcome,” Hamlin said. “Because this is a race that you could easily go finish 32nd or 33rd and have one point and you find yourself 20-some behind, and even being solid at Watkins Glen or good at Bristol, it might not be enough.

“I think that anytime we shrink the sample size down to three races, and one of those three is one that most drivers would say I don’t have a role in where I finish, I try to do the best I can to avoid the wreck and that’s it.”

The Glen will present a whole new variable teams will have to work through in the form of a softer tire, which is supposed to promote significant falloff due to the inability to pass on road courses in the seventh-generation car.

Playoff drivers Cindric, Reddick and Suarez were fortunate enough to get extra track time by participating in a two-day test set up by Goodyear in June.

Although there will be a full 40-minute practice session at The Glen, those with additional seat time could be at a significant advantage going into the New York road course.

Notably, Hendrick Motorsports has won the last five races at The Glen, but if any of those three drivers have a shot at dethroning them, it has to be Reddick.

Seeded third in the playoff standings, the regular-season champion has posted series-best stats in top fives, top 10s and average finish, including two wins and seven podiums. On top of that, Reddick has been one of the best in the Next-Gen era on road courses, with three victories.

“I don’t think you will be running to the end of your fuel window,” Reddick said. “We will probably be putting on tires more, so it is going to play out more like Darlington – I guess that is the hope … that people will try to short pit and jump people. You will see people go to optimum or go long if they have good long run speed to be able to pass cars on the backside of a run.

“I don’t know truly how it will play out, but I feel like it will certainly change up how you strategize things,” he added. “Two laps are two laps, but I do think people will probably at some point forego stage points, but you will certainly have to fight really hard to keep them behind you.”

One might expect a slight sense of normalcy due to ending round one at Bristol with the track’s historic night race. But in reflecting back to the spring, where there were a record 54 lead changes courtesy of easily-grated tires, those feelings fade quickly when not much is expected to change this time around.

The Joe Gibbs Racing stable will be ones to watch in Thunder Valley, as Hamlin enters with back-to-back wins, while all four drivers placed inside the top 10 in the spring. Truex returns as the most recent runner-up, in what might be the 2017 champion’s best shot at one last victory in his final season of full-time competition.

“I’m certainly looking forward to (Bristol) more than in past years,” Truex said. “Bristol has been in the past, just hammer it as hard as you can all day. Track position was huge. Tires didn’t really wear out and it was all about pit stops, restarts and track position.

“In the spring, it was like old-school racing. I enjoyed that more and had better success at it than I did in previous years at Bristol, so excited for that and I think it’s a good opportunity for us.”

Who will be on top, as well as moving on, when the Round of 16 concludes in three races’ time? It’s impossible to say at this point, but it’s going to be a fun time watching to find out.

The opening round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs kicks off Sunday, Sept. 8 at Atlanta (Ga.) Motor Speedway with the Quaker State 400 available at Walmart. Broadcast coverage is slated for 3 p.m. ET, live on USA, the Performance Racing Network, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, channel 90.