OPINION: 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Predictions

HAMPTON, Ga. – It’s that time of year again; 26 weeks of bumper-bending, temper-flaring, beating and banging has led the NASCAR Cup Series to its final 10-week sprint to the championship.

This season may feature one of the craziest 16-driver playoff fields in the elimination era.

From the favorites, like Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin, to the underdogs like Wood Brothers Racing’s Harrison Burton or Stewart-Haas Racing’s Chase Briscoe, to the feel-good stories of Chase Elliott – back in the hunt after missing last year – and Martin Truex Jr., who’s got one last chance at a title before hanging up his helmet at the end of the year, everyone is in play.

Mixed in with the aforementioned drivers includes Team Penske’s lineup of Austin Cindric, two-time Cup champion Joey Logano, and defending Cup champ Ryan Blaney. Hendrick’s Alex Bowman and Daytona 500 winner William Byron are in the field as well, along with JGR’s Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs.

Trackhouse Racing’s representative is Daniel Suarez, while 23XI Racing has Tyler Reddick, who earned the regular season championship. Add in Brad Keselowski, who scored his first win as an owner-driver to notch his spot in the playoffs for RFK Racing, and you’ve got the whole field covered.

The playoffs will be wild from the start, with the additions of superspeedway-like Atlanta (Ga.) Motor Speedway, and a second road course in Watkins Glen (N.Y.) International to the first round.

Atlanta favors the underdogs. Drivers like Burton or Cindric are players on drafting tracks, while Briscoe and Suarez had solid runs in the spring race, with the latter taking the trophy at the end of the night.

The bonus road course favors the all-around drivers like the Hendrick and Gibbs quartets, as well as some of the longshots like Suarez and Cindric, who have respectable resumes turning right and left.

The bullring of Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway closes out the opening round, and with it will see four drivers' title hopes dashed.

Despite probably being the most tame of the three races in round one, Bristol has every opportunity to be the most chaotic as well, given the extreme tire wear seen there in the spring. Veteran drivers like Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson know how to get it done at The Last Great Colosseum.

That said, I think at least one past champion falls by the wayside in round one, as well as a couple of underdogs.

OUT AFTER ROUND ONE: Burton, Gibbs, Logano, Bowman

Burton and Gibbs’ maiden voyages in the NASCAR postseason end here. Despite having a relatively chaotic round to perhaps luck into a transfer spot, there are just too many wild cards in the field, leaving these two as the odd young guns out.

Aside from their summer victories at Nashville and Chicago, Joey Logano and Alex Bowman have simply existed within the field, having good days every now and then. The uncertainty of the first round really puts most of the field behind the 8-ball, and unfortunately, these two won’t find their ways to the front.

In the second round, there’s a return to the cookie cutters, as Kansas Speedway kicks off the Round of 12 fun. 23XI and Toyota, as a whole, have had a death grip on this track since the beginning of the Next-Gen era, with Kyle Larson’s win this spring being the only exception.

Tyler Reddick or the JGR boys could escape the chaos of Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway or the Charlotte (N.C.) Motor Speedway ROVAP with a win there.

Talladega serves as the final drafting track of the season, and thus one of the final chances for an upset run to continue. Reddick won the spring race there, while Blaney knows his way around the Alabama track well, with three Talladega wins. Elliott also boasts a pair of victories at the 2.66-mile oval.

The newly reconfigured Charlotte ROVAL serves as the cutoff for the second round of playoff action, leaving drivers below the cut in desperation mode.

This is where the Cinderella stories end and the favorites take charge of the field. Some of the dark horses do exert respectable effort on the roads, which might let one or two slip through to the penultimate playoff stretch.

OUT AFTER ROUND TWO: Suarez, Briscoe, Keselowski, Truex Jr.

Despite snapping their winless streaks from 2022, I think Suarez and Briscoe’s time in the postseason concludes after Charlotte. While the tracks in the first two rounds might play to their strengths, they can also go against them.

Despite their wins, both Suarez and Briscoe were relatively inconsistent throughout the regular season, and it will catch up to them here.

Although both are champions of the sport, Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr.’s quests for a second crown falls short. Their seasons fall on opposite ends of the spectrum, as Keselowski is on pace to be up in all categories compared to last year, while Truex has trended downward in his final full-time year.

The penultimate round consists of what NASCAR was founded on: ovals. Las Vegas (Nev.) Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami (Fla.) Speedway serve as the mile-and-a-halfs that fans have grown to love, while Martinsville is the historic, ever-chaotic, last-chance-to-make-it short track that has been around longer than any other track on the circuit.

Miracle runs come to die in this round, despite everything they had going for them.

OUT AFTER ROUND THREE: Cindric, Elliott, Byron, Blaney

The Penske boys see their title hopes slip away in Virginia despite a respectable run from both. While defending series champion Blaney has easily carried the banner for the organization all year, lightning won’t strike twice in a late-season resurgence to win it all.

Meanwhile, Cindric played his cards right in the first two rounds to make it to this point, but the shenanigans of the schedule ceased in the third leg and will lead to his playoff exit.

The Hendrick drivers, on the other hand, have vastly different seasons. Byron picked up where he left off by winning the season-opening Daytona 500, but continued on his trend of fading over the summer. Fan-favorite Chase Elliott’s playoff return after a turbulent 2023 season concludes here as well.

Despite his win at Texas, Elliott has put up similar numbers to last season, despite running three more races this year. That may prove enough to get him to the Round of 8, but won’t see him fight in the Final Four.

CHAMPIONSHIP 4: Larson, Hamlin, Reddick, and Bell

And then there were four men left standing. Kyle Larson, making his third straight Championship appearance, and fifth overall, will be joined by Denny Hamlin, still seeking his elusive first title; Tyler Reddick, making 23XI’s debut in the title fight; and Christopher Bell, making it for the fourth year in a row.

All four drivers have solid cases to be made. Larson is being compared to Formula One champion Max Verstappen in a “World’s Best Driver” debate, all while running the Indianapolis 500, numerous dirt races, and winning four Cup Series races so far this year. He’s a proven champion, and despite missing the Coca-Cola 600 due to his Indy effort, secured a playoff waiver and a shot at his second title.

Reddick won Talladega in the spring and Michigan in early August and could have found two or three more wins throughout the season if he’d had a smidge of extra luck on his side. Regardless, he won the regular season championship and finds himself in the Championship 4.

Bell won at Phoenix in March, and a repeat there would clinch his first title. In addition, he won a rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600 and is on track for his best season to date. At this point for Bell, a championship isn’t an if, it’s a when.

Hamlin, now well into his 40s, still hasn’t lost his touch. He’s won three times this year and is putting up numbers somewhat consistent with years past. The dude knows how to win, but time and again manages to fumble the titular bag.

Time and again, his fans claim it’s his year. Time and again we ask ourselves, “Will Denny Hamlin ever win a NASCAR Cup Series championship?”

Many consider Mark Martin to be the greatest driver to never win the Bill France Cup, but lately, Hamlin’s name has crept into the conversation. Yet this year, the Chesterfield, Va., native will remove his name from the banter.

2024 CHAMPION: Denny Hamlin

After years of trials and tribulations, I believe Hamlin will etch his name in the history books at last and finally be honored as a NASCAR Cup Series champion.

Of course, these are just my thoughts, and the Cup Series playoffs will begin to separate truth from fiction Sunday, Sept. 8 at Atlanta with the Quaker State 400 available at Walmart.

Broadcast coverage is slated for 3 p.m. ET, with side-by-side commercials allowing every green-flag lap to be shown, on USA, the Performance Racing Network, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, channel 90.

The opinions expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of Race Face Brand Development, Race Face Media, their staff, partners, or other subsidiaries.