OPINION: Grading NASCAR Silly Season Moves, Part Two

HINSDALE, N.H. – Welcome back to part two in a series of columns working through the offseason which looks at how optimistic fans could, and perhaps should, be in regard to the various changes that have already taken place during NASCAR silly season.

With each move, I will give an optimism rating out of 10; the lower the score, the less optimistic I am for the driver and/or team, whereas the higher the score, the more optimistic I am. Keep in mind, these are simply my thoughts as an impartial observer.

With that being said, let’s get into part two with the continuation of the NASCAR Cup Series moves!

A.J. Allmendinger to Kaulig Racing (again!)

This move is pretty self-explanatory. Kaulig Racing is putting A.J. Allmendinger back in one of the team’s Cup Series cars full time for a second go-round after previously dropping him back into the Xfinity Series.

When Allmendinger went back down to the Xfinity level before, it was rather strange because it was partially unexpected, and it seemed to boil down to money and sponsorship rather than Allmendinger not liking the grind of the Cup Series. Either way, though, I don’t have much of an opinion on this move, not because of A.J., but because of Kaulig.

What have they shown lately to say that they can be solid, let alone good, in the Cup Series? It feels like there was a reason why Justin Haley left before the 2023 season, and Kaulig’s struggles seem to partially show why.

A.J. did well in Xfinity Series points this year but couldn’t win until Las Vegas (Nev.) Motor Speedway in the playoffs, and while SVG (then-teammate Shane van Gisbergen) got a trio of wins on road courses and showed improvement on the other tracks as the season went on, it never felt like Kaulig was a true title contender.

Before I give a rating on this move, I also have to address another one, however.

Ty Dillon to Kaulig Racing

The younger Dillon brother is back. Now, I have nothing against Ty and it’s great to see him racing again. But when Kaulig Racing’s tagline is “#TrophyHunting”, and yet they’re bringing on a driver to the team’s Cup Series squad who has never won at the top level and has done little outside of the Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series … respectfully, that’s not “trophy hunting” in my eyes.

It wasn’t that long ago where Kaulig looked like the next top team in the Xfinity Series: housing Haley, Allmendinger, and Ross Chastain, while winning races, getting consistent top fives and top 10s, and looking like championship contenders. Their Cup Series team looked ready to take leaps and bounds towards the top as well during that timeframe.

Now it seems like that promise has all fallen apart, and I’m not sure how Matt Kaulig, Chris Rice and company will fix it. With that in mind, combined, I’ll give the two Kaulig Cup Series changes a three out of 10.

Cole Custer to Haas Factory Team (formerly Stewart-Haas Racing)

Welcome back to the Cup Series, Cole Custer! Stewart-Haas Racing has restructured into Haas Factory Team, and Custer has been tabbed as the one to lead the now single-car operation.

In all honesty, Custer’s drop back to the Xfinity Series in 2023 was a necessary one. Though he got an upset win at Kentucky Speedway in 2020 as a Cup Series rookie, his success in the lower divisions wasn’t translating to the top level with Stewart-Haas Racing.

His step down was an immediate success, as Custer won the Xfinity Series title in 2023 and backed it up by finishing second in the standings this past season. Now that he’s coming back to Cup with all the focus being put on him, it's entirely possible that his recent success may carry over to the Cup Series this time.

If it doesn’t, he could always go back down to the Xfinity Series again, but if it does, then he should be a mainstay for years to come at the premier level of the sport. I’ll give this a 7 out of 10; I like Custer’s chances for the long haul.

Riley Herbst to 23XI Racing

This is the most “wait and see” move that I think we’ve seen happen, for a few different reasons.

For Herbst himself, there are still those that believe he’s merely a pay driver who’s managed to make it as long as he has in the Xfinity Series with no true success, besides his few wins in the last couple years.

For others, mainly those within the industry, it has been said that the Las Vegas native is essentially a late bloomer who has grown to get some respect in the sport, and his move to the Cup Series is deserved.

Good, bad, or indifferent, 23XI is still embroiled in a lawsuit against NASCAR, and despite winning the preliminary injunction to be able to race as a chartered team in 2025 while the suit works its way through court, NASCAR has appealed that decision so there are still many unknowns as to how this will all play out.

For now, I’ll give this a 5 out of 10 on the optimism meter, because I honestly don’t know where this will go or how Herbst will do with everything going on with the organization beyond the borders of each race weekend.

Shane Van Gisbergen to Trackhouse Racing

After one year of racing in the Xfinity Series, scoring three road course wins, likable New Zealander Shane van Gisbergen is moving up to the Cup Series, joining Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez at Trackhouse Racing.

SVG has easily been one of the most hyped-up additions to the NASCAR world, coming over from Australian Supercars racing much like Marcos Ambrose did in the mid-2000s. With that said, moving up this quickly has the potential to backfire on him, even with multiple road courses and the Chicago (Ill.) Street Course on the schedule.

While van Gisbergen improved on the other tracks over the course of the Xfinity Series season, the Cup Series is an entirely different beast, where mistakes will arguably hurt a driver more in the big picture. I’m sure he will continue to improve, and as long as his performance on the road courses remains good enough to where he can get wins, he’ll be a perennial playoff contender.

If SVG can get good on the ovals, though, watch out. This is a 10 out of 10 on the optimism scale.

In Closing…

The Cup Series is due for a couple more moves, but at this point it is more about personnel than anything else, with only one full-time ride left open (Rick Ware Racing’s No. 51 car) at this point.

With that in mind, there are plenty of moves in the Xfinity series to take a look at, and that will be the subject of part three in this silly season column series coming up!

The opinions expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of Race Face Brand Development, Race Face Media, their staff, partners, or other subsidiaries.